What Drivers Should Know About Availability, Pricing, and Product Selection

Over the past several weeks, I have received numerous questions from reporters, industry participants, and consumers regarding the possibility that the United States could face shortages of certain motor oils as a result of the ongoing Group III base oil disruption.

It is a fair question, but one that is difficult to answer in a thirty-second interview segment or a short news quote.

The reality is more nuanced. This article provides a fuller perspective on what is happening, what could happen next, and what it means for American drivers.

Most American drivers have never heard of Group III base oil. They have never needed to. When it is time for an oil change, they simply take their vehicle to a dealer, quick-lube, repair shop, or retail service center and expect the required motor oil to be available. For decades, that expectation has been reasonable. The lubricant supply chain has operated quietly in the background, delivering the products modern vehicles require without attracting much attention.

That assumption is now being tested.

Group III base oil serves as the foundation for much of the full synthetic motor oil sold in the United States. It is used to manufacture many of the low-viscosity synthetic motor oils required by modern vehicles, including 0W-20, one of the most widely used passenger car motor oil grades in the country.

A significant share of the world’s Group III supply comes from major Middle East producers, including facilities in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Disruptions associated with the 2026 conflict involving Iran — including attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz — have removed a substantial portion of global Group III production from the market while placing additional strain on supplies from South Korea.

The result is one of the most significant Group III supply disruptions the lubricant industry has experienced. Prices have risen sharply. Allocation programs have emerged. Spot market availability has tightened dramatically. Concerns about future availability have spread throughout the lubricant supply chain.

Given the growing media attention surrounding the shortage, consumers are naturally asking a simple question:

The short answer is no.

The longer answer is that America is unlikely to run out of motor oil overall, but shortages of specific types are possible and, in some cases, increasingly likely. That distinction is important. Availability is only part of the story. Consumers should also expect to pay significantly more for many synthetic motor oils and oil changes.

While the largest increases are occurring in full synthetic products that rely heavily on Group III base oils, synthetic-blend motor oils are also experiencing substantial price increases. Although the greatest supply pressures are concentrated in Group III, base oil prices across the lubricant industry have moved sharply higher since the disruption began, increasing costs for many types of motor oil and other lubricants.

Understanding the Different Perspectives

Discussions about the Group III shortage often reflect several different perspectives on how the situation may ultimately affect lubricant availability and pricing.

Some observers argue there is no shortage at all. They point to stocked retail shelves, available oil-change appointments, and the fact that most consumers have not yet experienced difficulty obtaining motor oil. From their perspective, warnings about shortages appear overstated.

Others view the situation primarily as a pricing problem rather than a supply problem. Under this view, motor oil will remain available, but consumers should expect to pay more for it as higher raw material costs work their way through the marketplace.

A third perspective — which is becoming increasingly common within the lubricant industry — is that the shortage will be selective rather than universal. Under this scenario, there may be enough lubricant volume overall, but not enough of the specific products required by newer vehicles. The greatest pressure is currently concentrated in low-viscosity full synthetic motor oils, particularly 0W-20. Petroleum Trends International estimates that 0W-20 accounts for roughly one-third of all passenger car motor oil used in the United States, making it the single largest viscosity grade in the market.

While this article focuses primarily on passenger car motor oils, the effects of the Group III shortage extend beyond the mainstream passenger car market. Group III base oils are also used in automatic transmission fluids, certain heavy-duty engine oils, and a variety of specialty lubricant applications that are experiencing their own supply challenges. In addition, some European OEM-approved passenger car motor oils, including certain SAE 5W-30, 0W-30, 0W-40, and 5W-40 formulations, may face unique pressures because of their reliance on synthetic formulations and stringent performance requirements.

At present, the most likely outcome of the current Group III disruption appears to be higher prices accompanied by selective shortages of certain products and viscosity grades. Motor oil will likely remain broadly available, but consumers should expect higher prices and fewer choices, and may encounter occasional difficulty obtaining certain products and viscosity grades.

Many consumers have not yet noticed significant changes because inventories purchased before the disruption are still moving through the marketplace. As those inventories are depleted and replaced with higher-cost product, the impact becomes increasingly visible at service centers and on retail shelves.

Inventories throughout the lubricant supply chain are helping buffer the disruption today, but those buffers may also be masking the full extent of the underlying tightness. Pressures could intensify if those inventories are depleted before new supply arrives.

What a Motor Oil Shortage Actually Looks Like

Recent media coverage of motor oil shortages and energy-market disruptions may conjure images of long gasoline lines and odd-even purchasing restrictions from the energy crises of the 1970s. However, the dynamics of motor oil demand and distribution are very different.

If a gas station runs out of fuel, drivers notice immediately. Vehicles stop moving. The impact is obvious and immediate.

Motor oil operates on a different timeline. Consumers generally do not purchase motor oil every week. Oil changes occur every several months. Inventories exist at multiple levels of the supply chain. Existing stocks continue moving through the marketplace. Substitutions are sometimes possible. Alternative formulations can help offset portions of the disruption.

For these reasons, a lubricant shortage is more likely to appear as higher prices, reduced promotional activity, fewer product choices, and occasional shortages of specific products or viscosity grades than as the widespread service disruptions associated with fuel shortages. Most drivers will still be able to get their oil changed.

To put the cost implications in concrete terms: cumulative wholesale cost increases of $7.00 to $8.45 per gallon for full synthetic products have already moved through the supply chain — increases that, when passed through to the consumer, could add $15 to $25 or more to the cost of a typical synthetic oil change.

Price is not the only concern. Certain Group III-dependent products are already being sold through allocation programs, underscoring that the issue affects both cost and availability. While most drivers will continue to obtain the products they need, choices may become more limited in some applications.

Group III Base Oil Shortage: Key Milestones & Projected Impact Timeline

Source: Petroleum Trends International, Inc.  |  JobbersWorld  |  June 2026

▶ Forward-looking milestones represent analytical projections based on current supply conditions and are subject to change. Actual timing will depend on geopolitical developments, production recovery rates, inventory levels across the supply chain, and actions taken by lubricant manufacturers, standards bodies, and OEMs. This timeline is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a guarantee or prediction of future market conditions.

For most American drivers, the Group III shortage will not announce itself with empty shelves or turned-away appointments — at least not yet. The more immediate experience will be higher prices and, in some cases, a service provider recommending a product substitution.

Neither of those outcomes requires alarm. But a few straightforward precautions are worth keeping in mind.

If your vehicle requires a low-viscosity full synthetic motor oil — particularly 0W-20 — do not defer a scheduled oil change. These are the grades under the greatest supply pressure, and they are more reliably available today than they may be later in the year. Waiting does not improve your position; it reduces it.

If a service provider tells you that your usual grade is unavailable and proposes a substitute, it is entirely reasonable to ask whether the proposed product carries the OEM approval your vehicle requires. The relevant question is not just whether the viscosity grade matches — it is whether the product holds the specific certification your manufacturer specifies, such as dexos1 Gen 3 for GM vehicles, or the equivalent approvals for Asian and European makes.

This is particularly important for many European vehicles. Some manufacturer-approved SAE 5W-30, 0W-30, 0W-40, and 5W-40 motor oils rely on full synthetic formulations designed to meet demanding performance requirements. For these vehicles, matching the viscosity grade alone may not be sufficient.

A reputable service provider should be able to explain whether a proposed substitute meets your vehicle’s required specifications and approvals. During periods of supply stress, understanding the difference between a product that is merely similar and one that is actually approved becomes more important than ever.

For a deeper discussion of OEM approvals, specification compliance, and questions consumers may wish to ask when substitutions are proposed, see JobbersWorld’s related article, “Protecting the Integrity of the Motor Oil Supply Chain During the Group III Shortage.”

Consumers who prefer to purchase their own motor oil for a do-it-yourself oil change or to keep on hand for top-offs may find it sensible to buy their required grade when they see it rather than waiting. This is not panic-buying — it is a reasonable response to a market that is less predictable than it was a year ago.

The Bigger Picture

One reason for cautious optimism is that the lubricant industry has faced difficult supply challenges before. Lubricant manufacturers, additive companies, OEMs, industry associations, and standards organizations all have strong incentives to keep approved products flowing to the marketplace. History suggests that the industry will continue adapting rather than allowing critical lubricant supplies to simply run dry.

The supply disruption affecting Group III base oils is not a problem that will resolve itself quickly, however. No significant new domestic Group III capacity is expected before 2027 at the earliest, with some projects targeting 2028. The geopolitical conditions that triggered the disruption show no clear near-term resolution. The longer-term picture depends heavily on how quickly global Group III supplies recover, whether new production capacity comes online on schedule, and how the industry’s standards bodies respond to the pressure the shortage has exposed.

The cars will keep moving.

The bigger question is whether the pricing, availability, and product choices that American drivers have come to expect will return to pre-shortage norms — and how quickly. The era of reliable supply and predictable pricing may be giving way to a market defined more by availability, specifications, and supply-chain resilience. For now, drivers are best served by staying informed, avoiding unnecessary delays in maintenance, and asking the right questions when getting their oil changed.

Thomas F. Glenn is President of Petroleum Trends International, Inc. and Editor & Publisher of JobbersWorld. He has more than 45 years of experience in the lubricants industry and has authored and managed numerous market research studies and industry analyses covering lubricant supply, pricing, distribution, and product quality.