U.S. lubricant exports have fallen sharply from the unusually high levels reached in 2024 and 2025, but a longer historical view shows that current volumes are much closer to the market’s established range than to an unprecedented low.

Based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data, first-half lubricant exports totaled a preliminary estimate of 19.5 million barrels in 2026, using EIA data for January through May and the approximately 3.1 million barrels reported for June in Census-derived trade data.

That compares with 22.9 million barrels in the first half of 2025 and 23.4 million barrels in the same period of 2024.

Viewed only against those two years, the decline appears dramatic. But extending the comparison back a decade changes the picture.

The chart shows a relatively tight cluster around 19 million to 20 million barrels across several pre- and post-pandemic years, followed by a clear jump in 2024 and 2025 before 2026 moves back toward the longer-term range.

H1 2026 is close to the levels recorded in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023, and above those seen in 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2021.

What stands out instead is 2024 and 2025.

First-half exports averaged more than 23 million barrels during those two years, roughly 20% above the levels that prevailed during both the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic period and the 2021-2023 period that followed.

The comparison with the years immediately before and after the pandemic is particularly instructive. From 2017 through 2019, U.S. first-half lubricant exports averaged approximately 19.2 million barrels. Following the disruption of 2020, exports returned to essentially the same level, averaging about 19.1 million barrels during the first halves of 2021 through 2023.

That suggests the 2021-2023 period was not obviously depressed relative to the pre-COVID market. Instead, the unusually high export volumes of 2024 and 2025 appear to represent an elevated period relative to the longer-term pattern.

This is important because it changes how the current decline should be interpreted.

The 2026 numbers do not indicate that U.S. lubricant exports have collapsed to historically depressed levels. Rather, first-half exports appear to have returned to a range that has repeatedly characterized the market over the past decade.

While aggregate export volumes have returned to a familiar range, the supply environment facing U.S. lubricant manufacturers has not.

Unlike several earlier periods when exports were near similar levels, the U.S. lubricant market is now contending with significant constraints in Group III base oil supply stemming from disruptions in the Middle East. The U.S. relies heavily on imported Group III, and supplies from the Middle East have been sharply reduced at a time when Group III pricing and replacement costs have risen dramatically.

This creates an important distinction between aggregate lubricant exports and the availability of specific base oil grades.

A roughly 19-million-barrel first-half export level may be historically familiar, but the supply environment in which those exports are occurring is not. The market is operating without the exceptionally high export volumes seen in 2024 and 2025 while simultaneously dealing with sharply reduced access to imported Group III and strong refining economics for transportation fuels.

The export data alone do not prove that barrels are being redirected to domestic buyers, nor should aggregate lubricant exports be viewed as a direct measure of Group III tightness. Trade flows are influenced by domestic demand, overseas buying, refinery operations, arbitrage, logistics and product mix.

For lubricant blenders and marketers, however, the export numbers raise an important question: Were the unusually high export levels seen in 2024 and 2025 becoming a new, higher export regime, or were they an elevated period that has now receded?

The 10-year history supports the latter interpretation.

Aggregate lubricant exports appear to be returning to historically familiar levels. The more consequential issue is timing: the elevated export volumes of 2024 and 2025 have receded just as imported Group III supply has become significantly constrained, driven in large part by disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. The aggregate volume may look familiar, but the composition and availability of the supply required by U.S. lubricant manufacturers do not.